Showing posts with label Money. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Money. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

I Like Bugs, And I Hate Them

One morning, long ago, back in the days when I used to brush my teeth, I leaned over the sink only to find a cockroach crawling out of that little "overflow" hole on the side of sink opposite the faucet. Launching myself back in disgust, I stared at the little bug, wondering if I should scream for my wife to come and kill it or to walk away and pretend it never happened. Honestly I can't remember what I did, although I'm pretty sure I decided that I'd never brush my teeth again.

Kidding...about the not brushing my teeth part; that other stuff totally happened.

But that's what you get in the desert, and many other cities around the world. Bugs. They're everywhere. Billions of them, all planning an overthrow (with the help of spiders, I would like to add) of the human race. You can forget Armegeddon, it'll be bugs that destroy us all. Sort of like that one Supernatural episode where those bugs killed all those people, etc.

Another bug crossed my screen last night as I wrapped up a VICTORY in Tol Barad. Granted, we were defending, so gaining a victory is sort of like beating a two-year-old in basketball. But knowing me, I'd probably trash talk that little kid as I was dunking over his head, such is the spirit of competition. Anyhoo, as the BG ended, a bug crossed my screen...aka an Achievement. Evidently, even though I entered Tol Barad with 15 minutes remaining and was on the defending side, I still earned For Whom the Barad Tols, an achievement for attacking TB and winning in under 10 minutes.

Come to find out, after some surfing and reading, there are quite a few bugs with TB achievements and achivement tracking. As if the actual battleground design wasn't bad enough, now people are either getting credit for things they never did or not getting credit for things completed. It must be frustrating for the later, cause who wouldn't be mad if they killed the Lich King but never got their Kingslayer title? Imaging the real wrath when those same people found if that people like me, who never killed the LK, actually got the KS title without earning it?

Ah, bugs. So much fun, and there are so many of them. Are there too many? I just wonder if Cataclysm wasn't rush, ya know, by just a bit. With the Ramkahen people voiceless, achievements all screwey, and all the other little things that come with each patch or expansion normally, perhaps good ol' ATVI (That's Activision-Blizzard) was a bit more concerned with meeting Q4 revenue and net income figures than having a clean, finished product.

For the most part everything is really well done. I'm not saying that the xpac is a dud; I know that there will always be unforseen bugs crawling out unexpectedly while we brush our teeth or slay our dragons. There just seem to be a few extra things, a couple fairly large, that can't have been a bug but rather a product of unfinished work.

Oh well, it'll work itself out, I'm sure. Hey, my guild got XP from my little added achievements, so it's not like I'm the only one benefitting from this, my whole guild gets the bonus from the bug infestation in Azeroth. So with the bad comes some good...albeit unearned.

Friday, December 31, 2010

Late Night Thoughts on the Wacky WoW Economy

By the time I post this it will be New Years Eve. The genesis for tonight's rambling began months and months ago, and I suddenly felt it time to release these harrowing thoughts on my loyal readers (I think I just heard a cricket, and it's the middle of the frickin winter).

I went to Business school. More correctly stated, I went to UNLV and studied Finance and Real Estate in UNLV's Business College, because Universities are actually made up of...oh, most college people are on break and don't want to hear another lecture for a month or so, so I'll move on.

Anyhoo, as I was saying, while in business school you learn a thing or two about, well, business, but quite a bit more about people. After having a good 7-8 years in the real world I can honestly say that about half of what is taught is a load of crap. I am sorry to any college student reading this, I don't mean to make you feel like your completely wasting your parent's or your own money (or the government's, in which case is perfectly fine), I'm just saying what I feel is true. You see, in college I never had a professor talk about the emergence of FAKE economies. They based all their cirriculum on the "Real World"...bunch of idiots.

Then again, what is a "fake" economy. I have three names, a first, second and a last. All my life I have been known by my middle name. But when people find out that the name I go by is my middle one the question inevitably follows: "So then what's your REAL name?" After 35 years of this (I just had my birthday, and yes I'm now unemployed and 35, horray for me), I've found myself growing tired of the same question. My middle name is just as real as my first, it's just in a different position on my driver's license. But being the benevolent human that I am, quick to show pity to the mentally impared, I spare them a lecture and inform them that my FIRST name is [fill in guess here].

Where am I even going with this? It's the consequence of not writing a significant or thoughtful post for almost two weeks now, I'm going soft and taking my brain with me. Or it may be that it's 1am and by back hurts and I can't sleep and I'm a little too, uh, medicated. I believe what I'm trying to do is tie in the gorilla that is the WoW economy with some personal recollection of some past experiences to try to create some meaningful connection that you can understand as a reader and some idiodic point that I'm attempting to make as a writer. Oh wow, it's late.

Anyhoowahoo, in business school I learned about this little bug called inflation. What is inflation? Well that can be simple or complicated, depending on your previous studies and current, accurate knowledge. Basically inflation manifests itself in the form of progressively increasing prices in order to purchase the same item, whether that is a bag of corn, a gallon of milk, or a barrell of crude oil. So let's say you need milk. Today you go to the store and pay $2, tomorrow it's $2.05. Did the milk suddenly change its properties or chemical structure or something weird like that? Well whatever happened the price of milk "Inflated", or increased.

Many things affect whether prices of good inflate, one of which is a shift in the supply curve of money, artifically increasing the money supply of a country. Think of it this way, diamonds are supposedly valuable because there aren't billions of them up for sale, but the more diamonds there are the less valuable they become, not because some law of the universe dicates it so, but that's just what tends to happen when humans understand and can see that there is a shift in the supply of some good, they simply begin to value it less than the day before.

To watch the WoW economy operate at the beginning of this expansion is an economists wet dream. Economics has always been treated as a social science by Universities accross my country, added into business schools due to it's focus on financial systems. Economists don't just study the numbers, they are looking at behaviors of the people, or the psychology of the masses. And when they feel like winning some nobel prize they draw some graphs and do some math.

(By the way, I really do respect economists, I'm just having a bit of fun)

One of the things that interests me the most is watching the work of inflation in all its glory. What's interesting is as people play more, a simplistic theory would be that people, over time, will tend to accumulate money. There is no fed to pump money into the economy artificially, and there are mechanisms in place (aka gold sinks) that play a role in taking money out of the system from time to time. These are tools used to help regulate potential inflationary risks. How I see it, however, is there are more mechanisms designed by the game to take your money than to pump some back in artificially. So given common economic theory of money (yes, I know there are multiple definitions of money), there's a better chance for a supply shift in the opposite direction, a shift to the left on the graph, money leaving. That sort of shift would tend to raise the value of each piece of gold in the game, keeping prices low and inflation in check.

But prices are a funny thing, as unpredictable as the people's brains who play the game. I've noticed a couple things lately. First, there are no shortages of supplies of any good out there, yet I see leg enchants being sold for 4-5K gold. Raw green quality gems being sold for 150g, and their more perfect, cut counterparts for 15g. There are more bots than ever, so there's plenty of herbs and skins for everyone. But people are using the "there's demand, that's driving the prices up" argument that frannkly doesn't hold water with me.

You see, anyone who knows a lick about economics knows that there is a delicate interplay between supply and demand, and markets tend to fight to find an equilibrium price somewhere. But economies are run by people, and people are unpredictable, and people are selfish, and there's always some douche bag that is trying to sell one herb for 1500g. Cataclysm hit shelves and masses of people decided that they would post thousands of auctions for whatever price they could sell them for. And you know what, the economy seemed to work fine. There were plenty of really hard core players that had the gold to spend whatever, making more and more goods and services inelastic, far more (on a percentage basis) than any REAL WORLD economy could ever boast.

Just about everything can be sold for anything now, or so it seems. And I cannot explain it. Frankly, any economist would say that both supply and demand curves shifted, thereby NOT causing prices to increase, but there are people out there who want you to believe that supply curves have not shifted, or that demand is so high that its shift on the graph merits the insane prices. Personally I think it's everyone silently agreeing to make money, ya know, for the good fo the game. But as people make tons of cash and things slow down and prices fall, what happens to that new player who rolls around Azeroth with 1500g in his/her bag and would like to run heroics or raid but cannot afford their 10,000 per week pricetag to buy all the gems and enchants and repairs and all.

I honestly have no clue how the WoW economy works, no clue at all. I'm amazed it does, even as it defies some real world economic theories. I guess there's nothing much to complain about, people seem to do just fine, but I have this nagging thought in the back of my mind. Are we creating just one more "Barrier to entry" for wanna-be raiders by charging insane prices for raw supplies (even though there's no lack) and even more insane markups by the crafters for the required enchants, etc demanded by any good raid leader? If WotLK was an expansion about inclusion, everyone got epics, everyone ran ICC, everyone did this or that, are we helping to swing the pendulum just a little too far the other way (Blizz has already swung it in the direction of exclusion) by artificially inflating prices ourselves because we can get away with it?

I don't think the average WoW player runs around with 30K gold in his/her bag. In my guild there are a couple, but most run under 3-5K at ALL times. Are we preventing newer, less wealthy people from experiencing something? True, anyone can work at it and make money to fulfill whatever goal they want, I know that, but not everyone is as equally cunning as another, we're all different and have different levels of knowledge, skill, and salesmanship. Maybe I'm totally wrong, maybe I'm just making crap up because it's like, really, really late for me to be up, but nobody is awake, the home is silent, and I got to thinking.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Some Financial Facts...and some Speculation

Financials: Known as the various kinds of financial reporting instruments both required by law and required by usefulness. Not a textbook definition, but a practical one. Accountants and Management look at and analyze financials and use them as a tool for both understanding what has worked for the company but also how to proceed as to operations and strategy for the future.

We recently learned that Blizzard has drastically changed the upcoming Cataclysm feature Path of the Titans. It’ll still be there, but not really. This and a couple other omissions have left some people wondering whether Blizzard is pushing too fast to release Cataclysm, while others stand by Blizzard’s PR people in saying that the expansion “will be released when it’s ready.”

So what’s the truth? If you’re smart you must realize that the truth is always somewhere on the spectrum between two extremes. Maybe a better question is: How much influence does ActivisionBlizzard’s (I’ll use ATVI, it’s stock symbol for the rest of the post) upper management have on the development and release of Cataclysm? To get close to the answer, I believe, will require us to understand their Financials. So let’s get to it. (All my data comes directly from ATVI’s financial statements on their website and from NASDAQ.com).

A rather common but erroneous measure of a company’s financial position is its stock price. I’ve put in a graph of their stock price over the past 12 months. What do you notice?




For one it appears that the stock price as been A) Trending lower and B) Volitile. That is until you realize that over a five year period it’s gone from 6.87 to 14.85 to 8.64 to around 11.20 today. Their stock price has always been volatile, but during that same period there has definitely been a significant RISE in player subscriptions. So just looking at a stock price won’t tell us if Management is putting the pressure to release.

LEVERAGE
I like that show, but it’s moving to Sunday night on TNT so I don’t know if I’ll remember to watch. Oh, not that Leverage, financial leverage or debt. ATVI is actually in a good position. They actually do not incur any long-term debt, and their current ratio is a solid 2.91. Current Ratio measures the ability of a company to pay off short-term debt. Calculated by dividing Current Assets / Current Liabilities (Current = less than one year).

What this means that in the short term if ATVI ran into some small financial trouble, they would have sufficient assets to pay off what they owed and keep themselves afloat. ATVI also maintains a significant cash reserve, but even according to admitted risk factors, a significant drop in subscribers could easily completely use up their loss reserves, which is an undesirable event. But overall their leveraged positions are strong, there’s not much there to worry management.

EARNINGS
Now we’re getting to the meat of the issue. Earnings and all the factors and measurements off earnings are a tool managers use to strategize and make decisions. Not to say earnings are the sole factor, any analyst knows that you actually use ALL financial data and relevant reports to reach any conclusions. But expected future earnings are a factor in stock prices, which is good for shareholders.

AVTI breaks down their revenue into two categories: 1) Product Sales, and 2) Subscription, Licensing and Other Revenue. #2 is a broad range of income and consists of income generated through their relationships with retailers and other outlets and developers. Product sales are pretty self-explanatory, I hope; they sell a box of WotLK and they call that “Revenue”.

The Net Revenue over the past five years looks like this (in Millions):
2009 - $4,279
2008 - 3,026
2007 - 1,349
2006 - 1,018
2005 - 780

Consequently their Net Income (Loss) for the same time period looks like this:
2009 - $113
2008 - 107
2007 - 227
2006 - 139
2005 - 45

Per AVTI’s financial reports:

Cash Flows from Operating Activities
The primary drivers of cash flows from operating activities have typically included the collection of customer receivables generated by the sale of our products and our subscription revenues, offset by payments for taxes and to vendors for the manufacture, distribution and marketing of our products, third-party developers and intellectual property holders, and to our workforce. A significant operating use of our cash relates to our continued investment in software development and intellectual property.


AVTI even exceeded Q1 2010 expectations by posting $1.3B in Revenue (1.1B expected), with total cash and investments totaling $3.4B (3.3 expected). They anticipate $700M for Q2 and $4.2B for the entire year 2010. Additionally, their EPS (or earnings per share) have also exceeded expectations. So financially speaking, they are reaching their goals for revenue and even recently exceeding their expectations. That’s got to have management in a good mood. As part of their expectations they still anticipate to release Cataclysm in 2010, so whatever revenues generated from those product sales are included into their $4.2B estimate.

Unfortunately, AVTI’s P/E Ratio is not one of the best in their industry. Yes, there are future expectations of revenue, but there are significant risks to AVTI’s products and operations. In their own words, let me share what they see are some, just some of those risks. These may seem obvious, but to see them written and admitted to makes them legitimate and worth consideration.

RISKS

* A continuing deterioration of general economic conditions could result in a reduction in discretionary spending by consumers that could reduce demand for our product.
* We depend on a relatively small number of franchises for a significant portion of our revenues and profits. (i.e. Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, and World of Warcraft account for approximately 68% of all net revenues for the year ended Dec 31, 2009. Additionally, revenues associated with the World of Warcraft franchises accounted for 98%, 97%, and 97% of Blizzard’s consolidated net revenues for the years ended Dec 31 2009, 2008, and 2007 respectively)
* A substantial portion of our revenue and profitability will depend on the subscription –based MMORPG category. If we do not maintain our leadership position in this category, our financial results could suffer. To remain a leader in the MMORPG category, it is important that we continue to refresh World of Warcraft or develop new MMORPG products that are favorably received by both our existing customer base and new customers.
* The future success of our business depends on our ability to release popular products in a timely manner.
* If our products contain defects, our business could be harmed significantly.

Bored yet?

I hope not, because simply by looking into their financial reports we see a few interesting things. First is that without WoW, Blizzard would fail…at least as we know them now. Unless they introduced something else to take it’s place, they still rely on product sales and continued subscriptions of WoW to keep their business a viable business. They are very interested in making a good product. VERY. They realize that if they send Cataclysm to the retail floors of Wal-Mart, Target, GameStop, whatever that it needs to be a product with as few defects as possible and a gaming experience worthy of the subscribership they need to remain financially viable.

I’ve thought a lot about this, and I think I realize that the truth definitely is in the middle on this one. Yes, top brass is whispering in the ears of the developers to get the product launched in the time they set forth who knows how long ago. In the meantime, the devs are working their brains off to get it done…THE RIGHT WAY. I don’t envy them in the slightest. It can’t be an easy job to satisfy enough people to earn over 4 billion a year in revenue. Yet each year they seem to meet or exceed their revenue goals. Now there are other financial factors that are incredibly boring to discuss at the moment, so I won’t ever go there.

But I think it’s clear that they are trying. I don’t think they scrapped PotT because they couldn’t meet a deadline, financially speaking it’s better for them to put out a good product than to put out a product by X date. So in a way I believe it when they say that it “will be released when it’s ready”…as long as it’s this year so that the shareholders get their money’s worth!